Lesson objective: Apply simulations to a real world situation.

This lesson provides an opportunity for students to apply their knowledge and understanding of simulations and compound probability to a real-life situation. Students are asked to design a simulation to model guessing on five multiple-choice questions with four answer choices.

Key Concept students will use:

- We can design simulations to generate frequencies for compound events, and then compare the observed frequencies to the expected frequencies.

Skills students will use:

- generating frequencies to simulate compound events that have a probability of success that is \(\frac14\).
- addition to find probabilities for an "at least" problem
- comparison of experimental probability to theoretical probability

Students engage in Mathematical Practice 5 (use appropriate tools strategically) as they model a situation using a probability simulation.

**Key vocabulary: **

- expected frequency
- experimental probability
- observed frequency
- relative frequency
- simulation
- theoretical probability

**Special materials needed:**

- calculator
- colored chips
- colored cubes
- colored marbles
- coins
- deck of cards
- number cubes
- spinners
- tickets