10. Apply experimental probabilities to estimate quantities: Coin conundrum (A)
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Lesson objective: Apply experimental probabilities to estimate the quantity of each coin, and the total amount of money, in a mystery bag of change.
This lesson provides an opportunity for students to apply their knowledge and understanding of experimental probabilities to a reallife situation. Students are asked to calculate experimental probabilities and use them to estimate how much money is in the bag.
Key Concept students will use:

The actual frequency of an event occurring is not expected to be exactly the same as the predicted frequency in a probability model. The accuracy improves as we increase the number of observations.
Skills students will use:
 Calculating experimental probabilities
 Proportional reasoning with percents (Grade 7, Unit 3)
 Rounding (Grade 5, Unit 6)
Students engage in Mathematical Practice 4 (Model with mathematics) as they model a realworld problem of estimating the amount of money in the bag, using experimental probability.
Key vocabulary:
 experimental probability
 observations
Special materials needed:
 optional: a bag of coins for students to follow up the lesson with their own experiment