Lesson objective: Predict number of times an outcome will occur using theoretical probabilities.

This lesson helps build procedural skill using theoretical probabilities to make predictions. Tables and proportions are used here because proportional reasoning is used to make predictions. This work develops students' understanding that the probability of an event is proportional to the predicted number of times an outcome occurs over the number of observations of the event.

Students engage in Mathematical Practice 4 (Model with mathematics) as they calculate probabilities and use proportional reasoning to make predictions.

**Key vocabulary:**

- observation
- theoretical probability