This lesson introduces the idea of simulation. Different groups of students use different chance experiments that are designed to enable you to approximate the probability of a real world event.
Students follow a process similar to what they used in previous lessons for calculating relative frequencies (the activities in which students were rolling a 1 or 2 on a number cube or drawing a green block out of a bag). The distinction in this lesson is that the outcomes students are tracking are from an experiment designed to represent the outcome of some other experiment that would be harder to study directly. Students see that a simulation depends on the experiment used in the simulation being a reasonable standin for the actual experiment of interest (MP4).
This lesson works with estimating the probability of simple events in preparation for students being able to estimate the probability of compound events in upcoming lessons.
Lesson overview
 6.1 Warmup: Which One Doesn’t Belong: Spinners (5 minutes)

6.2 Activity: Diego’s Walk (20 minutes)
 Includes "Are you Ready for More?" extension problem
 6.3 Activity: Designing Experiments (10 minutes)
 Lesson Synthesis
 6.4 Cooldown: Video Game Weather (5 minutes)
Learning goals:
 Comprehend the that term “simulation” (in written and spoken language) refers to a chance experiment used to represent a realworld situation.
 Describe (orally and in writing) a simple chance experiment that could be used to simulate a realworld event.
 Perform a simulation, and use the results to estimate the probability of a simple event in a realworld situation (using words and other representations).
Learning goals (student facing):
 Let’s simulate realworld situations.
Learning targets (student facing):
 I can simulate a realworld situation using a simple experiment that reflects the probability of the actual event.
Required materials:
 preprinted slips, cut from copies of the blackline master
 paper clips
 number cubes
 paper bags
Required preparation:
 Print and cut up slips and spinners from the Diego's Walk blackline master.
 Provide each group of 3 supplies for 1 type of simulation: choosing a situation slip from a bag, spinning a spinner, or rolling 2 number cubes.
 The supplies for each simulation include:
 a paper bag containing a set of slips cut from the blackline master
 a spinner cut from the blackline master, a pencil and a paper clip
 2 standard number cubes
Glossary:

simulation  A simulation is an experiment that is used to estimate the probability of a realworld event. For example, suppose the weather forecast says there is a 25% chance of rain. We can simulate this situation with a spinner with four equal sections. If the spinner stops on red, it represents rain. If the spinner stops on any other color, it represents no rain.
 Access the complete Grade 7 glossary.
Standards
 This lesson builds on the standard: CCSS.7.NS.A.2.dMS.7.NS.2dMO.7.NS.A.2d
IM 6–8 Math was originally developed by Open Up Resources and authored by Illustrative Mathematics, and is copyright 20172019 by Open Up Resources. It is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). OUR's 6–8 Math Curriculum is available at https://openupresources.org/mathcurriculum/.
Adaptations and updates to IM 6–8 Math are copyright 2019 by Illustrative Mathematics, and are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Adaptations to add additional English language learner supports are copyright 2019 by Open Up Resources, and are licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
The Illustrative Mathematics name and logo are not subject to the Creative Commons license and may not be used without the prior and express written consent of Illustrative Mathematics.
This site includes public domain images or openly licensed images that are copyrighted by their respective owners. Openly licensed images remain under the terms of their respective licenses.